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  • Writer's pictureVirtus Prosperity

VIETNAMESE ECONOMY SHOWS ROBUST RECOVERY IN Q4 2023

According latest socio-economic report released by the General Statistics Office (GSO) about the October and ten-month 2023 data of Vietnam, the intrinsic value of the Vietnamese economy is on a trajectory of recovery, exhibiting several positive indicators. To be specific:

1. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases and Inflation remains as expected

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2023 saw a slight increase of 0.08% compared to the previous month. In comparison to December 2022, October CPI saw a 3.2% increase, and a 3.59% increase compared to the same period last year. The average CPI for the first ten months of 2023 increased by 3.2% compared to the same period in the previous year, with core inflation rising by 4.38%.

Positive signs emerge as consumers exhibit increased spending, contributing to the stimulation of consumption and a gradual resolution of output challenges faced by manufacturing and consumer-oriented enterprises.

The gold price index for October 2023 increased by 0.92% compared to the previous month, marking a 5.87% rise from December 2022, and an 8.28% increase from the same period last year. The average for the first ten months of 2023 witnessed a 2.81% increase.

The US Dollar/Vietnamese Dong exchange rate has stabilized at over VND24,500 per USD1, remaining relatively high. The central bank has not signaled an increase in interest rates or foreign exchange sales, instead employing fundamental measures such as issuing bonds to absorb excess liquidity and stabilize the exchange rate.

2. Industrial production and Aquaculture growth compared to the previous month and last year; Trade Balance maintains a surplus

Industrial: Industrial production in October continues its positive trend, with an estimated industrial production index for October 2023 increasing by 5.5% compared to the previous month and 4.1% compared to the same period last year. In aggregate, for the first ten months of 2023, the overall industrial production index is projected to increase by 0.5% compared to the same period in the previous year.

Aquaculture: In aggregate for the first ten months of 2023, aquaculture production is estimated to reach 7,645.2 thousand tons, a 2.2% increase compared to the same period last year. This includes fish at 5,455.9 thousand tons, up by 1.9%; shrimp at 1,091.4 thousand tons, up by 4.4%; and other aquatic products at 1,097.9 thousand tons, up by 1.7%.

Retail & Consumer: Commercial activities in October were quite dynamic, with the total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue estimated to increase by 1.5% compared to the previous month and 7% compared to the same period last year. In aggregate for the first ten months of 2023, the total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue increased by 9.4% compared to the same period last year, with accommodation and food service revenue increasing by 15%, and travel and tourism revenue surging by 47.6%.

Goods Export and Import: In aggregate for the first ten months of 2023, the total value of goods export and import reached USD557.95 billion. While this represents a decrease compared to the same period last year, there has been growth compared to the previous month and the early months of 2023. The goods trade surplus for the first ten months of 2023 is estimated at USD 24.61 billion.

3. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Growth and Intensive Public Investment disbursement

In aggregate for the first ten months, capital investment executed from the state budget is estimated to have reached 65.8% of the plan, marking a 22.6% increase compared to the same period in 2022. New registered FDI as of October 20, 2023, is estimated at USD 15.29 billion, signifying a 54.0% surge compared to the same period last year.

Specifically in October, state budget disbursement achieved 65.7 trillion VND, accumulating to VND479 trillion for the first ten months of 2023 - a remarkable increase of over 22% compared to the same period last year.

These are highly positive indicators that reflect the Government's determined efforts in executing public investments rigorously and attracting additional foreign capital into Vietnam.

Source: Foreign Investment Registered in Vietnam as of October 20, 2019-2023 (USD Billion), GSO

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