Vietnam's Economy in 2025: Accelerating Growth Target Contracts

According to the Ministry of Finance, starting from July 1, 2025, Vietnam has undergone a significant administrative restructuring, reducing the number of provincial-level units from 63 to 34. This major change not only aims to streamline governance but also serves as the basis for recalculating the economic “growth targets” assigned to each locality. These new targets are expected to serve as a key driving force in accelerating national economic growth in 2025.

Recalibrated Growth Targets

The Government has set an ambitious goal: to achieve a national economic growth rate of 8.3% to 8.5% in 2025. This requires tremendous efforts across all levels of government. Minister of Finance Nguyễn Văn Thắng emphasized that localities, especially economic hubs and growth engines, must aim for growth rates exceeding those outlined in Resolution No. 25/NQ-CP.

Following the merger of administrative units, the Ministry of Finance has reassessed and recalculated the economic growth responsibilities for each province. A draft resolution to replace Resolution No. 25/NQ-CP has been submitted to the Government, setting revised growth benchmarks not only for provinces but also for state-owned groups and corporations.

Several provinces have been assigned double-digit GRDP (Gross Regional Domestic Product) growth targets, including:

• Hai Phong: 12,2%

• Quang Ninh: 12,5%

• Bac Ninh: 11,5%

• Ninh Binh: 10,6%

• Phu Tho, Hue, Quang Ngai, Can Tho: 10%

Major economic centers such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are expected to reach 8.5%, while Thanh Hoa, Nghe An, Ha Tinh, and Da Nang are set at 9% or higher. Tay Ninh is targeted at 9.3%, and Khanh Hoa at 8.5%.

Local Perspectives and Determination

Facing the high-growth mandate, localities across Vietnam clearly understand that this is a heavy burden but one that must be shouldered. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has firmly stated: “This must be done,”emphasizing the proactive role of each province and city in implementing their assigned tasks.

Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee, Nguyen Van Duoc, affirmed the city's strong determination: “We are confident that we will join the entire nation in successfully achieving the growth target of 8.3%–8.5%, striving to reach the upper limit of 8.5%.” To fulfill this target, HCMC will deploy a series of bold and strategic measures:

• Strengthening the two-tier urban administrative model

• Accelerating the disbursement of public investment

• Supporting export-oriented businesses

• Resolving bottlenecks in stagnant or delayed projects

• Promoting the development of an International Financial Center

Similarly, Da Nang is pursuing the development of a financial hub and a free trade zone, while also speeding up public investment and improving the local business environment.

In Hanoi, Chairman Tran Sy Thanh stated that the capital will focus on attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly in high-tech sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence, while also boosting domestic consumption and investing in critical infrastructure. Previously, Hanoi’s GRDP (Gross Regional Domestic Product) growth target was set at 8%, but under the revised national plan, this has been raised to 8.5%, posing greater demands and challenges for the capital.

Public Investment Disbursement

A consistent theme across all local growth strategies is the acceleration of public investment disbursement. This is not only a short-term economic stimulus but also a foundation for long-term sustainable development.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has repeatedly emphasized that public investment disbursement is a mandatory task and that 100% of the 2025 capital plan must be completed. Specifically, the total planned public investment for 2025 is VND 830 trillion, with an additional VND 152.7 trillion from increased revenue and budget savings in 2024 - bringing the total to nearly VND 1 quadrillion (approximately USD 40 billion). If fully disbursed, this capital will provide a significant boost to the national economy.

The Ministry of Finance has instructed all ministries, sectors, and local governments to:

• Develop detailed monthly disbursement schedules down to individual project owners.

• Proactively resolve bottlenecks in each investment project.

• Strive to achieve a 60% disbursement rate by the end of Q3 and 100% by year-end 2025.

Mobilizing Total Social Investment

Beyond public capital, Vietnam must intensify efforts to mobilize total social investment, especially from the private sector and foreign investors. According to the Ministry of Finance, in the second half of 2025, the total investment capital required is approximately USD 111 billion, which is USD 3 billion higher than the amount needed for the previous 8% growth scenario.

Specifically:

• Private sector investment: USD 60 billion

• FDI attraction: USD 18.5 billion

• Realized FDI: USD 16 billion

• Other sources (ODA, government bonds, etc.): USD 7 billion

To support disbursement efforts and boost production and business activities, the Government has established eight special task forces, tasked with resolving difficulties across key areas such as: exports and imports, public investment, infrastructure construction, logistics, and more.

At the same time, nearly 3,000 delayed or stagnant projects nationwide are being reviewed for potential resolution. The Prime Minister has instructed local governments to proactively coordinate and exercise their full authority to address legal and procedural obstacles, with the goal of unlocking capital flows and accelerating growth.

Notably, if these projects, estimated to represent a total value of USD 235 billion, are successfully unblocked, they could unleash an enormous resource for the economy, driving a strong recovery and helping achieve national growth objectives.

Conclusion

The merger of administrative units is not only a structural reform aimed at improving governance, but it also marks the beginning of a new phase in economic management—more efficient and performance-oriented. With strong determination from the Government, ministries, and local authorities, coupled with a clear “growth quota” policy and tight supervision mechanisms, 2025 promises to be a pivotal year for Vietnam’s economic acceleration, breakthrough, and sustainable development. The task ahead is undeniably challenging, but as Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh declared: “There is no alternative. This must be done.”Therefore, local governments have no choice but to make every effort and rise to the occasion.